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Friday, May 17, 2013

Inflation Indexed Bonds

Finally, Inflation Indexed bonds are going to be issued by Government of India on 4th June'13.
The RBI will sell inflation-indexed bonds of 10-year maturities that would realise Rs 1,000-2,000 crore each month and aggregate to Rs 12,000-15,000 crore by the end of the fiscal. The principal will be indexed to the wholesale price index (WPI) with a four-months lag, while the coupon will remain fixed. Initially, these bonds will sold through auctions, to Mutual Funds, Insurance companies, Pension funds etc, for the purpose of price discovery and Market development. This will also  help creating a secondary market for these bonds.
                 These Inflation Indexed Bonds (IIB's) are reintroduced by GOI,after a previous attempt was made in 1997. The GOI and RBI are hoping that as these bonds will provide hedge against inflation, which will help in moving people away from Gold, which  is also considered a hedge against inflation. These steps are taken by the GOI, after the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has touched record levels. 
          

IIBs will be having a fixed real coupon rate and a nominal principal value that is adjusted against inflation. Periodic coupon payments are paid on adjusted principal. At maturity, the adjusted principal or the face value, whichever is higher, will be paid. The bond would be protected from inflation through the final WPI will be used for providing inflation protection in this product.Final WPI with four months lag will be used, i.e. Sept 2012 and Oct 2012 final WPI will be used as reference WPI for Feb 1, 2013 and March 1, 2013, respectively. The reference WPI for dates between Feb 1 and March 1, 2013 will be computed through interpolation.


How does it work?
If you pay Rs. 100 for a bond that tells you it will pay 6% a year, the normal expectation is to get Rs. 6 per year, because the 6% (“coupon”) is on the Rs. 100 (“principal”).
Inflation index bonds expect to change the principal but retain the coupon at the same rate. You will get 6% but on a higher or lower principal depending on how inflation goes.Effectively the amount of interest you receive moves with inflation.
Year 1: Let’s say inflation is 10%. That means the WPI index, which was 200 at start, is now 220. The calculation is that principal goes up by this amount and so does interest.
So, principal = issue time principal * (current WPI / WPI index at issue time).
or, principal = 100 * (220/200) = 110.
The New Principal is Rs. 110. Interest paid out = Rs. 110 * 6% (constant coupon). = Rs 6.6
Effectively the new principal went up. You can’t do anything with this new principal. But like the house you live in, you can feel good that its price went up.
Year 2: Let’s say inflation is 5%. So the WPI is at (220 * 105%) = 231.
Same calculations give us:
New Principal = 100 * (231/200) = Rs. 115.5
Interest paid out = 6% of 115.5 = Rs. 6.93.
Year 3: Inflation of 12% 
WPI = 258.72
New Principal = 100 * (258.72/200) = Rs. 129.36
Interest paid out = 6% of that = Rs.7.7616


If the bond now matures (note: maturity is 10 years for these bonds, but just saying) the New Principal will be paid to you as the principal. This becomes a capital gain. However, should the bond principal fall below Rs. 100 because the WPI index hugely deflates at maturity, you will get Rs. 100.
The bonds are issued by the government of India, in Indian rupees.Hence for Indian investors they are  risk-free.
   Hence, the rate of return = Average Inflation + coupon rate. That means a 6% coupon IIB will, at 8% average inflation will give you 14% rate of return. (6% + 8% inflation). 
                But the coupon rates on these bonds might just be somewhere around 1% or so, and  not such a high figure of 6%.
 


                           

The RBI will sell inflation-indexed bonds of 10-year maturities that would realise Rs 1,000-2,000 crore each month and aggregate to Rs 12,000-15,000 crore by the end of the fiscal. The principal will be indexed to the wholesale price index (WPI) with a four-months lag, while the coupon will remain fixed - See more at: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/inflationindexed-bonds-to-be-launched-on-june-4/1116500/#sthash.8JYxY43G.dpuf
The RBI will sell inflation-indexed bonds of 10-year maturities that would realise Rs 1,000-2,000 crore each month and aggregate to Rs 12,000-15,000 crore by the end of the fiscal. The principal will be indexed to the wholesale price index (WPI) with a four-months lag, while the coupon will remain fixed - See more at: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/inflationindexed-bonds-to-be-launched-on-june-4/1116500/#sthash.8JYxY43G.dpuf
The RBI will sell inflation-indexed bonds of 10-year maturities that would realise Rs 1,000-2,000 crore each month and aggregate to Rs 12,000-15,000 crore by the end of the fiscal. The principal will be indexed to the wholesale price index (WPI) with a four-months lag, while the coupon will remain fixed - See more at: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/inflationindexed-bonds-to-be-launched-on-june-4/1116500/#sthash.8JYxY43G.dpuf
The RBI will sell inflation-indexed bonds of 10-year maturities that would realise Rs 1,000-2,000 crore each month and aggregate to Rs 12,000-15,000 crore by the end of the fiscal. The principal will be indexed to the wholesale price index (WPI) with a four-months lag, while the coupon will remain fixed - See more at: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/inflationindexed-bonds-to-be-launched-on-june-4/1116500/#sthash.8JYxY43G.dpuf
The RBI will sell inflation-indexed bonds of 10-year maturities that would realise Rs 1,000-2,000 crore each month and aggregate to Rs 12,000-15,000 crore by the end of the fiscal. The principal will be indexed to the wholesale price index (WPI) with a four-months lag, while the coupon will remain fixed - See more at: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/inflationindexed-bonds-to-be-launched-on-june-4/1116500/#sthash.8JYxY43G.dpuf

Thursday, December 20, 2012

               Which Stocks should a newbie buy when entering stock market...?

A friend of mine has suddenly started having a lot of interest in stock market. So she asks me can I help her with some basics on how to decide on which stocks to buy. I gave her some information about Price to earnings ratio, EPS, market cap, book value etc. But after a few weeks she was still at  a loss.
                                                So, I told her to but the stocks of those  companies of whose products and services she uses. As I have known her for so many years, I know which all products she loves and all.
So  the stock/companies/products I mentioned to her were:

  1. Domino's / Jubliant Foodworks: Now she is a skinny girl, who is grossly under weight, but she is a huge fan of Domino's Cheese Burst pizza's and Garlic bread. Her roommates share her passion for these as well.  Now, anybody who has followed the returns given by Jubliant Foodworks would definately agree with me. And with the addition of Dunkin Donuts, it is still a stock to buy.
  2. FastTrack/ Titan Industries: She loves fast-track accessories, whether it be bags, watches, sunglasses. Add to that the love of her towards rings and other jeweleries and the brand Tata, Titan becomes a must buy for her. Business sense dictates this as well. No matter people keep on saying that the growth of Titan will slow  down or so, I don't believe them. A company which caters to the  lifestyle of the today's generation and sales of less than 9000 Cr, is gonna keep on increasing.
  3. ICICI Bank: She has her salary account with ICICI Bank, and will also open her trading account with them (if she ever does that). And she is a happy customer. And I don't think that I even need to give reasons for buying this company.
  4. Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting: Before she only used to use Dove, at that time she should have bought Hindustan Unilever. But now she doesn't like Dove at all and  loves Santoor. And I would definitely recommend her to  buy the IPO of Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting, whenever it comes. WCCL is growing at a very fast pace, both organically and  inorganically. 
Now as she got the hang of what I was saying, she suggested Kingfisher is another brand but it is failing. Then I said not everybody uses Kingfisher. We young people like bang for our buck, hence we prefer Indigo or GoAir. Then she said everybody around her drinks Kingfisher beer and then I said, in that case buy United Breweries.

Then I quoted her few more examples from my life and other around her. We discussed companies like Bajaj Corp, of whose Bajaj Almond Drops, I have been using religiously for last 12 years, from school time.
ITC Ltd.,  she is pissed with her teammates who take a cigarette break after every 30 mins., which better  company can you ask for which has such loyal customers.

Buying a right company is so easy, one needs to just look into their life and in people around us. Go and buy Sayaji Hotels, if you are a fan of Barbeque Nation, or Page Industries, if you love your Jockey, or Speciality Restaurants if you love eating out at Mainland China.

These companies have given excellent returns in the past and will keep on doing so, just because you love their products and their are many who feels the same way about them.

Monday, May 7, 2012

AVT Natural: One of its Kind....!!!!!



AVT natural has been on the radar of the investors when it was trading at the price of 170/- and odds. It's current CMP is  310. So the question arises, is AVT Natural is still undervalued.
                                    
                                               The answer to the question will be available to you, once you are done knowing about the company. AVT Natural is in the business of Marigold Oleo-resin, in which it is world leader, Spice Oils and Oleoresins, India's 2nd largest exporter and is entering in Value added beverage business, where it is setting up a decaffenation plant, only third in Asia. The company has seen phenomenal growth in Revenues and net profit in this year, with the 4th quarter result still awaited. 
                                                               
                                AVT also has tie-ups with the biggest consumers of it's product. Like Finlays, which is the world's largest independent trader of tea, has entered in to contract for decaffenation with AVT. McCormick, which is one of the world's largest Spice Oil and Oleoresins consumer. Kemin Industries Inc., which is the world's largest marigold consumer, has also tied up with AVT. Kemin , in fact has an exclusive agreement, where it will procure all its requirement of food-grade marigold oleoresin for production of FloraGlu Lutein from AVT only. Some other leaders which are users of AVT's product are Harris Freeman and Chrysantis Inc. 
                                                    
                                                              The margins in the business are very good, because it is a niche business and thus provides a much needed entry barrier require to maintain one's margin. Another major advantage for the company is that it produces marigold in area of about 35,000 acres through contract farming and boosts of high yield an low costs. It has one of the best model for contract farming.
            
                                          Let's have a look at the performance of the company for last few quarters.
                  
          
Dec'11 Sep'11 Jun'11 Mar'11 Dec'10 Sep'10 Jun'10
Sales Turnover 57.85 63.87 48.13 53.64 35.41 30.52 18.84
Other Income 0.2 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.02
Total Income 58.05 63.89 48.16 53.72 35.43 30.53 18.86
Expenditure 36.86 37.53 28.58 43.97 27.3 24.3 18.65
Operating Profit 21.19 26.36 19.58 9.75 8.13 6.23 0.21
Interest 2.84 0.76 0.86 1.26 1.46 1 0.61
Gross Profit 18.35 25.6 18.72 8.49 6.67 5.23 -0.4
Depreciation 0.96 0.9 0.9 0.68 0.84 0.84 0.84
Tax 6.09 8.65 6.24 2.69 1.76 1.2 0
Reported
PAT 11.3 16.05 11.58 5.12 3.62 3.19 -1.24
EPS 14.85 21.09 15.23 6.73 4.76 4.19 -1.63
OPM 36.50 41.26 40.66 18.15 22.95 20.41 1.11
GPM 31.61 40.07 38.87 15.80 18.83 17.13 -2.12
NPM 19.47 25.12 24.04 9.53 10.22 10.45 -6.57

Clearly the company has given stupendous performance backed by the increase in the revenues and profit margins of the company.


Also let us compare the latest quarter result and YTD results.

  
2011-12(Q3) 2010-11(Q3) 2011-12(9 mnths) 2010-11(9 mnths)
 % Var   % Var 
 Sales 57.85 35.41 63.37 169.85 84.77 100.37
 Other Income 0.2 0.02 900 0.25 0.05 400
 PBIDT 21.19 8.13 160.64 67.13 14.57 360.74
 Interest 2.84 1.46 94.52 4.46 3.07 45.28
 PBDT 18.35 6.67 175.11 62.67 11.5 444.96
 Depreciation 0.96 0.84 14.29 2.76 2.52 9.52
 PBT 17.39 5.83 198.28 59.91 8.98 567.15
 TAX 6.09 1.76 246.02 20.97 2.96 608.45
 PAT 11.3 3.62 212.15 38.94 5.57 599.1

On the back of its YTD results, it is safe to assume that the company will have the EPS of nearly about 50 for the current year. And does the company is trading at the trailing P/E of around 6.

Also, the volume growth will come from its decaffenation business . 


Also the demand of its product is set to increase and not many companies in the world have the capabilities to deliver, the way AVT delivers. the company might not be able to grow in future at such a stupendous growth, and the  growth might tamper to a CAGR of around 20%, but considering that the company is trading at such a low trailing P/E. It makes sense to get invested in it.
Also the promoters of the company are renowned AV Thomas Group, whose another company Neelamalai Agro Industries is listed. The promoters have also increased their stake close to the maximum level of 75%, by creeping acquisition method.

            Thus the company looks very safe to get invested in.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Model for choosing stocks

Hello everybody,
I have disappeared for a long time, but I am back.
Have been busy, completing my MBA.

I am back and will add a lot of companies with detailed analysis, now that I can find some time.
But meanwhile, I want to give you a model, which can help you to eliminate howlers while you are picking up stocks.

I am putting here a link of an excel sheet.
This sheet uses a mixture of fundamental and very basic technical parameters. The idea, is to put emphasis on fundamental analysis, and after fundamental analysis, using some basic tools of technical, and using them to decide whether it is the right time to enter the stock, given the  model has given a thumbs up on the fundamental parameters.

In future, when I can get time, I will update the model and add questions t each parameter and will try and explain the reasons behind each parameter.

Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuwMwPnarEAjdE9QMkt3VjBmTGQ0YjNVRjRWRUtwREE#gid=0

Thank You and Happy Investing.